At a live poker table, risk has weight. It has a sound, too.
Your cash becomes chips. You handle them, shuffle them, and hear them clicking together. Make a bad decision, and someone reaches across the table and physically takes them away from you. Make a good one, and the dealer pushes a larger pile in your direction. There is no pretending the money isn't real.
I spent nearly ten years playing poker professionally and earned nearly $2 million in combined live and online tournament winnings. Some of my costliest decisions played out on television. I know the pride of getting one right and the regret of getting one wrong, sometimes very publicly.
That is probably why prediction markets fascinate me. They use some of the same muscles I relied on in poker: research, probabilities, reading the people on the other side and putting real money behind a judgment. But the resemblance can be deceptive.
